Mmaraka oa lefats'e oa li-pellet o eketsehile haholo lilemong tse leshome tse fetileng, haholo-holo ka lebaka la tlhokahalo e tsoang lekaleng la indasteri. Le ha limmaraka tsa ho futhumatsa li-pellet li etsa palo e kholo ea tlhokahalo ea lefats'e, kakaretso ena e tla shebana le lekala la mapolanka a indasteri.

Limmaraka tsa ho futhumatsa li-pellet li 'nile tsa qholotsoa lilemong tsa morao tjena ke litšenyehelo tse tlaase tsa mafura a ho futhumatsa (litheko tsa oli le khase) le ho futhumala ho feta mariha a tloaelehileng Amerika Leboea le Europe. FutureMetrics e lebelletse hore motsoako oa litheko tse phahameng tsa oli le maano a de-carbonization a tla khutlisetsa kholo ea tlhokeho molemong oa li-2020s.

Lilemong tse 'maloa tse fetileng, lekala la liindasteri tsa pellet ea lehong le ne le le leholo joalo ka karolo ea pellet ea ho futhumatsa,' me ho lebelletsoe hore e tla ba kholo haholo lilemong tse leshome tse tlang.
Mmaraka oa liindasteri oa pellet ea patsi o tsamaisoa ke phokotso ea khabone le maano a tlhahiso e nchafalitsoeng. Li-pellets tsa mapolanka tsa indasteri ke mafura a fokolang a khabone a ka nchafatsoang habonolo a nkang sebaka sa mashala liteisheneng tse kholo tsa motlakase.

Li-pellets li ka nkeloa sebaka ke mashala ka litsela tse peli, ebang ke phetoho e feletseng kapa ho thunngoa hammoho. Bakeng sa phetoho e feletseng, yuniti eohle seteisheneng sa mashala e fetoloa ho tloha ho sebelisa mashala ho ea ho li-pellets tsa patsi. Sena se hloka hore ho be le liphetoho tsamaisong ea mafura, litsamaiso tsa phepelo le li-burners. Co-firing ke ho chesoa ha li-pellets tsa patsi hammoho le mashala. Maemong a tlase a ho thunngoa ha kopanelo, ho hlokahala liphetoho tse nyane meahong ea mashala a ntseng a le teng. Ha e le hantle, metsoakong e tlaase (tlas'a liperesente tse ka bang supileng) ea li-pellets tsa patsi, hoo e ka bang ha ho na phetoho e hlokahalang.

Tlhokahalo ea UK le EU e lebelletsoe ho eketseha ka 2020. Leha ho le joalo, kholo e kholo e lebelletsoe Japane le Korea Boroa ka 2020s. Re boetse re lebelletse hore Canada le US li tla ba le limela tse matla tsa mashala tse sebelisoang ka mapolanka a indasteri ka 2025.

Tlhokahalo ea Pellet

Merero e mecha e meholo ea tšebeliso e kopanetsoeng ea ho thunngoa le ho sokoloha naheng ea Japane, EU le UK, le Korea Boroa, le merero e mengata e menyenyane e ikemetseng ea ho fehla matla Japane, e lebelletsoe ho eketsa lithane tse ka bang limilione tse 24 ka selemo ho tlhokahalo ea hajoale ka 2025. kholo e lebelletsoeng e tsoa Japane, le Korea Boroa.

FutureMetrics e boloka pokello ea lintlha tse qaqileng tsa morero mabapi le merero eohle eo ho lebelletsoeng hore e tla be e sebelisa lipente tsa patsi. Boholo ba phepelo ea li-pellets bakeng sa tlhokahalo e ncha e reriloeng ho EU le UK e se e hlophisitsoe le bahlahisi ba ka sehloohong ba teng. Leha ho le joalo, limmaraka tsa Majapane le S. Korea li fana ka monyetla oa bokhoni bo bocha, ke hore, haholo-holo, eseng ka mokhoa oa kajeno.

Europe le Engelane

Khōlo ea pele (2010 ho fihlela joale) lefapheng la liindasteri tsa pellet ea lehong le tsoa Europe Bophirimela le UK Leha ho le joalo, khōlo ea Europe e ea fokotseha 'me e lebeletsoe hore e be boemong ba pele ho 2020s. Kholo e setseng ea tlhokeho ea pellet ea mapolanka ea indasteri ea Europe e tla tsoa mererong ea Netherlands le UK

Tlhokahalo ea lits'ebeletso tsa Dutch e ntse e sa tsejoe, kaha limela tsa mashala li liehile ho etsa liqeto tsa ho qetela tsa matsete mabapi le liphetoho tsa tšebeliso e kopanetsoeng ho fihlela li fuoa tiisetso ea hore limela tsa tsona tsa mashala li tla tsoela pele ho sebetsa. Bahlahlobisisi ba bangata, ho kenyeletsoa le FutureMetrics, ba lebelletse hore litaba tsena li tla rarolloa mme tlhoko ea Madache e kanna ea hola ka bonyane lithane tse limilione tse 2.5 ka selemo lilemong tse tharo ho isa ho tse nne tse tlang. Ho ka etsahala hore tlhoko ea Madache e tla nyoloha ho fihla ho lithane tse limilione tse 3.5 ka selemo haeba liteishene tse 'nè tsa mashala tse filoeng lithuso li tsoela pele ka merero ea tsona.

Merero e 'meli ea UK, phetoho ea seteishene sa motlakase sa EPH's 400MW Lynemouth le polante ea MGT's Teeside greenfield CHP, hajoale e ntse e sebelisoa kapa e ntse e hahuoa. Drax e sa tsoa phatlalatsa hore e tla fetola yuniti ea bone hore e sebetse ka li-pellets. Hore na yuniti eo e tla sebetsa lihora tse kae ka selemo ha ho tsejoe hantle ka nako ena. Leha ho le joalo, kaha qeto ea matsete e entsoe, FutureMetrics e hakanya hore unit 4 e tla sebelisa lithane tse ling tse 900,000 ka selemo. Yuniti e 'ngoe le e 'ngoe e fetotsoeng seteisheneng sa Drax e ka sebelisa lithane tse ka bang limilione tse 2.5 ka selemo haeba li sebetsa ka botlalo selemo kaofela. Merero ea FutureMetrics e na le tlhoko e ncha e ka bang teng Europe le Engelane ho lithane tse limilione tse 6.0 ka selemo.

Japane

Tlhokahalo ea biomass Japane e tsamaisoa haholo ke likarolo tse tharo tsa leano: Sekema sa tšehetso sa Feed in Tariff (FiT) bakeng sa matla a ka nchafatsoang, litekanyetso tse sebetsang hantle tsa semela sa mashala, le lipehelo tsa tlhahiso ea khabone.

FiT e fana ka bahlahisi ba ikemetseng ba matla (IPPs) theko e behiloeng bakeng sa matla a tsosolositsoeng ka nako e telele ea konteraka - lilemo tse 20 bakeng sa matla a biomass. Hajoale, tlas'a FiT, motlakase o fehloang ka "lehong le akaretsang," le kenyelletsang li-pellets, mapolanka a tsoang kantle ho naha, le khetla ea palm kernel (PKS), o fumana thuso ea 21 ¥/kWh, ho tloha ho 24 ¥/kWh pele ho la 30 Loetse. 2017. Leha ho le joalo, lintlha tse ngata tsa biomass IPPs tse fumaneng FiT e phahameng li koaletsoe ka tekanyo eo (hoo e ka bang $ 0.214 / kWh ka litekanyetso tsa hona joale tsa phapanyetsano).

Lekala la Japane la Khoebo le Khoebo ea Moruo (METI) le hlahisitse seo ho thoeng ke "Motsoako o Molemo ka ho Fetisisa oa Matla" bakeng sa 2030. Morerong oo, matla a biomass a etsa karolo ea 4.1 lekholong ea tlhahiso ea motlakase ea Japane ka 2030. Sena se lekana le ho feta limilione tse 26 metric tonnes of pellets (haeba biomass kaofela e ne e le pellets ea lehong).

Ka 2016, METI e ile ea lokolla pampiri e hlalosang litekanyetso tse ntle ka ho fetisisa tsa theknoloji e fumanehang (BAT) bakeng sa limela tse futhumetseng. Pampiri e hlahisa litekanyetso tse fokolang tsa katleho bakeng sa lijenereithara tsa matla. Ho tloha ka 2016, ke karolo e le 'ngoe feela ho tse tharo ea tlhahiso ea mashala ea Japane e tsoang ho limela tse finyellang maemo a sebetsang hantle a BAT. Tsela e 'ngoe ea ho lumellana le maemo a macha a katleho ke ho kopanya li-pellets tsa patsi.

Hangata katleho ea limela e baloa ka ho arola tlhahiso ea matla ka ho kenya matla. Kahoo, ho etsa mohlala, haeba seteishene sa motlakase se sebelisa 100 MWh ea motlakase ho hlahisa 35 MWh, setsi seo se sebetsa ka katleho ea 35 lekholong.

METI e lumelletse matla a matla a tsoang ho biomass co-firing hore a tlosoe ho kenyelletsoeng. Haeba semela se tšoanang se hlalositsoeng ka holimo se sebelisa 15 MWh ea li-pellets tsa patsi, katleho ea semela tlas'a lipalo tse ncha e tla ba 35 MWh / (100 MWh - 15 MWh) = 41.2 peresente, e leng ka holimo ho moeli o tloaelehileng. FutureMetrics e badile boima ba dithane tsa mapolanka a patsi a tla hlokoa ke dipolante tsa motlakase tsa Majapane ho tlisa dipolante tse sebetsang hantle ho latela tlaleho e sa tswang ho lokollwa ya Japanese Biomass Outlook ka FutureMetrics. Tlaleho e na le lintlha tse qaqileng mabapi le tlhoko e lebelletsoeng ea li-pellets tsa patsi, khetla ea palm kernel, le lithupa tsa patsi Japane le maano a tsamaisang tlhoko eo.

Ponelopele ea FutureMetrics bakeng sa tlhokeho ea pellet ke bahlahisi ba banyane ba ikemetseng ba matla (IPPs) e ka ba lithane tse limilione tse 4.7 ka selemo ka 2025. Sena se ipapisitse le tlhahlobo ea li-IPP tse ka bang 140 tse boletsoeng ka botlalo ho Pono ea Biomass ea Japane.

Kakaretso ea tlhoko e ka bang teng Japane ho tsoa ho lifeme tsa motlakase tse sebetsang le ho tsoa ho IPPs e ka feta lithane tse limilione tse 12 ka selemo ka 2025.

Kakaretso

Ho na le boitšepo bo phahameng mabapi le nts'etsopele e tsoelang pele ea mebaraka ea li-pellet tsa indasteri ea Europe. Tlhokahalo ea Majapane, hang ha merero ea IPP e se e ntse e sebetsa 'me lits'ebeletso tse kholo li fumana melemo ea FiT, le tsona li lokela ho tsitsa mme ho ka etsahala hore li hole joalo ka ponelopele. Tlhokahalo ea nako e tlang S. Korea e thata haholo ho hakanya ka lebaka la ho se tsitse ha litheko tsa RECs. Ka kakaretso, FutureMetrics e hakanya tlhoko e ncha e ka bang teng ea li-pellets tsa patsi tsa indasteri ho fihlela 2025 e feta lithane tse limilione tse 26 ka selemo.